Collected Item: “Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation and aridity in Serbia in the 21st century”
Врста публикације
Рад у часопису
Верзија рада
објављена верзија
Језик рада
енглески
Аутор/и (Милан Марковић, Никола Николић)
Boško Milovanović, Sebastian Schubert, Milan Radovanović, Vesna Ristić Vakanjac, Christoph Schneider
Наслов рада (Наслов - поднаслов)
Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation and aridity in Serbia in the 21st century
Наслов часописа
International Journal of Climatology
Издавач (Београд : Просвета)
Royal Meteorological Society
Година издавања
2021
Сажетак на енглеском језику
In this study, the projected changes of the average monthly and annual air
temperatures, precipitation amounts and De Martonne aridity index in Serbia
in the 21st century are examined. For that purpose, the spatial distribution of
air temperature and precipitation amount is statistically modelled using data
of 64 climatologic stations and 421 precipitation stations for the period 1976–
2005 using multiple linear regression. The De Martonne aridity index is calculated
from the spatially distributed data. In order to obtain regional averages
and variability, we divide Serbia into three subdomains: the western zone (the
Dinarides), eastern mountainous (Carpathian-Balkan) zone and the terrains
with altitudes lower than 500 m a.s.l. (Lowland). As a second step, the members
of the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) for
Europe (EURO-CORDEX) are evaluated in terms of near-surface air temperature
and precipitation for Serbia. By comparing respective values for the period
1976–2005 with future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, we derive the climate
change signal for near-surface air temperature, precipitation and the De
Martonne index for both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Hereby, the ensemble
averages are calculated as weighted averages using the inverse standardized
Euclidean distance by comparing observation and model results for nearsurface
air temperature and precipitation as a weight. We find for the period
2071–2050 that most ensemble members predict a statistically significant
increase in monthly and annual near-surface air temperature in both scenarios
in all three subdomains, and a statistically significant decrease in the yearly De
Martonne index in the RCP8.5 scenario in the Carpathian-Balkan and Dinarides.
For the last decades of the 21st century, our findings indicate much
higher temperatures and increased risks of drought for the RCP 8.5 scenario
compared to both the observations from 1976 to 2005 and the RCP 4.5
scenario.
temperatures, precipitation amounts and De Martonne aridity index in Serbia
in the 21st century are examined. For that purpose, the spatial distribution of
air temperature and precipitation amount is statistically modelled using data
of 64 climatologic stations and 421 precipitation stations for the period 1976–
2005 using multiple linear regression. The De Martonne aridity index is calculated
from the spatially distributed data. In order to obtain regional averages
and variability, we divide Serbia into three subdomains: the western zone (the
Dinarides), eastern mountainous (Carpathian-Balkan) zone and the terrains
with altitudes lower than 500 m a.s.l. (Lowland). As a second step, the members
of the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) for
Europe (EURO-CORDEX) are evaluated in terms of near-surface air temperature
and precipitation for Serbia. By comparing respective values for the period
1976–2005 with future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, we derive the climate
change signal for near-surface air temperature, precipitation and the De
Martonne index for both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Hereby, the ensemble
averages are calculated as weighted averages using the inverse standardized
Euclidean distance by comparing observation and model results for nearsurface
air temperature and precipitation as a weight. We find for the period
2071–2050 that most ensemble members predict a statistically significant
increase in monthly and annual near-surface air temperature in both scenarios
in all three subdomains, and a statistically significant decrease in the yearly De
Martonne index in the RCP8.5 scenario in the Carpathian-Balkan and Dinarides.
For the last decades of the 21st century, our findings indicate much
higher temperatures and increased risks of drought for the RCP 8.5 scenario
compared to both the observations from 1976 to 2005 and the RCP 4.5
scenario.
Волумен/том или годиште часописа
2021
Број часописа
2021
Укупан број страна рада (уколико не постоји пагинација)
19
DOI број
10.1002/joc.7348
ISSN број часописа
1097-0088
Географско подручје на које се односи публикација
Republika Srbija
Кључне речи на српском (одвојене знаком ", ")
21 vek, temperatura vazduha, klimatske promene, De Martonne-ov indeks ardinosti, padavine, Srbija
Кључне речи на енглеском (одвојене знаком ", ")
21st century, air temperatures, climate change, De Martonne aridity index, precipitation, Serbia
Шира категорија рада према правилнику МПНТ
M20
Ужа категорија рада према правилнику МПНТ
М22
Степен доступности
Затворени приступ
Лиценца
Creative Commons – Attribution-NonComercial 4.0 International
Формат дигиталног објекта
.pdf